Have I ever told you about shifting baseline syndrome?

Trees for Life’s conservation work at Athnamulloch, Glen Affric, in the Highlands of Scotland. Image: http://thatadventurer.co.uk/35-beautiful-landscapes-scotland/

I don’t know what made me buy George Monbiot’s book ‘Feral’, I wasn’t a fan of his writing, nor was I aware of the term ‘rewilding’. The book may even have been one of those suggestions on Amazon. Whatever tempted me into buying it, I’m glad it did because reading the book was a defining moment in my life. He had somehow managed to put my thoughts, values, and visions about conservation, particularly British wildlife conservation, that had been jumbled up and tumbling around my head for years, into amazing clarity. Lightbulb after lightbulb was turned on. Monbiot himself says that he had a similar cathartic experience writing the book, which is based around the concept of rewilding – both wildlife and humans, but it was a reading about a concept named shifting baseline syndrome that resonated most with me.

The 2016 State of Nature report, which was released in September, has just revealed that Great Britain is one of the most nature depleted countries in the world. Since 1970, and in my life time, we have lost over 56% of our species, with more than a tenth of all species assessed in danger of becoming locally extinct (local as in UK local). Children are now growing up with well over half of the biodiversity and wildlife that I grew up with gone. That’s a staggering thought.

The concept of shifting baseline syndrome was first used by a landscape artist named Ian McHarg in his 1969 art manifesto called “Design with Nature”. In it he suggested using ecologically sound approaches in the planning and design of outdoor public areas, landmarks, and structures by investigating not only existing social, ecological, and soil conditions and processes in the landscape, but past conditions and processes too, to influence achieve environmental, social, or aesthetic, outcomes. He used shifting baseline syndrome in reference to modern people using the landscape which we live with now, rather than ancient landscapes, to influence planning and decisions.

This week, in early December, two leading UK forestry organisations, the Woodland Trust, and Confor, the trade association for the UK forestry industry, warned that England was now in a state of deforestation. More trees are being felled than planted. Forests are being lost to development and infrastructure. The UK government have responded by saying that woodland cover is now at its highest levels since the 14^th century, and that they are committed to planting another 11 million trees over the next four years. These statistics have been dismissed by the Woodland Trust as a red herring, they say that since the 1930’s England has lost half of its native ancient woodland, and these have been planted with non-native tree species to ‘commercialize’ them.

Shifting baseline syndrome, as a concept, was developed further by Daniel Pauly in his 1995 essay, in Trends in Ecology and Evolution, entitled “Anecdotes and the shifting baseline syndrome of fisheries”. Pauly described fledgling fisheries scientists using fish stock levels and species composition from when they started their jobs, rather than looking at past information, to influence decisions throughout their careers. Effectively using already depleted stocks as the baseline. When the next generation of fisheries scientists embarked on their career, they too would be using inappropriate reference points, and the ‘baseline’ would be further shifted, resulting in critical pressure on already overfished waters.

The 2010 Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government changed planning laws which meant that the countries once protected greenbelt could now be built on. Here in 2016, under a conservative government we are starting to face the consequences in this shake up. Greenbelt is now at the mercy of developers. Chat Moss, my local patch, a large expanse of rare-for-Salford farmland, lowland raised peat bogs, woods, coppices, and hedges, which provides important habitats for an abundance of wildlife (including 29 IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) red list threatened bird species and over 26 IUCN amber list bird species) is set to lose over 600 acres to housing and warehouse development. Chat Moss isn’t alone, the Greater Manchester Spatial framework has lots of greenbelt land throughout the county set firmly in its sights, and this is happening in counties up and down the country. Even the greenbelt in the Prime Minister’s, Theresa May’s, constituency of Maidenhead is not safe.

In 2010 Frans Vera, a Dutch ecologist and ornithologist wrote a scientific paper; “The shifting baseline syndrome in restoration ecology” in which he adapted Pauly’s concept, relating it to the way that we look at wildlife habitat conservation and restoration rather than fish stock levels. He said that rather than looking at how the land was now, we have to look to the past to look to the future to successfully restore the ecology of depleted habitats. He used this theory in on a Dutch nature reserve called “Oostvaardersplassen” which is famous the world over as an example of ‘rewilding’.

In 2013, in his book Feral, George Monbiot expanded this concept further, and this is where I became aware of the term. He used the example of conservation scientists arguing and fighting to save habitats such as the National Park of Snowdonia, which is promoted as one of the UK’s last wilderness refuges as a controversial example of shifting baseline syndrome. He described the bare rolling hills and mountains as a desert, declaring that they should be covered in trees and forests, rather than their current state; grazed until they resemble a golf course, by generations of sheep. He said that shifting baseline syndrome was being used to influence the majority of UK conservation decisions.

This week, after reading the 2016 State of Nature report in detail, reading the Woodland Trust’s and Confors stark statement that England is in a state of deforestation, and learning that Chat Moss, my local patch, the place that I roamed as a boy and owe my passion for wildlife to, was to lose 600 acres, I was in a pretty bleak mood. It was depressing me that today’s children could, thanks to shifting baseline syndrome, base their view of the natural world on the way things are now. I was really concerned about the future.

Hope was offered when I was shown an example of some fantastic ecological restoration work performed by an organisation called Trees for Life. They were formed by an inspiring man called Alan Featherstone-Watson who made the grand pledge to restore the ancient Caledonian forest that once stretched from one Scottish coast to the other. They’re looking back hundreds of years to look forward hundreds of years and they’re doing an amazing job. In 2012 they planted their millionth tree and they want to plant a million more by 2018. The work that I saw was a mountainside which was fenced off to keep deer out, and it was lush, and green, and filled with trees and plant life. It looked as I imagined it would have looked before humans and livestock, and the hunting estates, and the loggers moved in.

Back at home I excitedly explained this to a friend whose response was “trees are great, but wouldn’t they spoil the view?”

Have I ever told you about shifting baseline syndrome?